NSO projected India’s GDP for 2023-24 at 7.3%

NSO projected India’s GDP for 2023-24 at 7.3%

As per the first advance estimates of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the country’s real GDP for 2023-24 is estimated at 7.3% which is 10 basis point higher than the lastly projected at 7.2 % by the NSO.

The Reserve Bank of India has also recently projected the GDP growth forecast 2023-24 at 7 %. Now the projection of NSO outperformed the estimation of RBI. These projections direct a way to achieve more than 7% uptick for the real GDP growth in the FY24.

More estimated data:

During the first half of this year, the GDP growth was 7.7%. The GDP projection data by the NSO mostly relied on the growth rate of the first six- eight months of this year and also the NSO advance estimates for the GDP growth forecast are helpful for the formulation of the next union budget.

These projections about GDP growth indicate that the second half of this fiscal year will grow about 6.9%-7% GDP growth rate.

Gross Value Added (GVA):

As per the NSO advance estimates of national income the Gross Value Added(GVA) growth is estimated at 6.9% for this fiscal year which is slightly decreased from last year’s GVA growth at 7%. Further It stated that the nominal GDP growth for this year will reach 8.9% compared to the budget estimates that is 10.5%.

For the farm sector, the GVA growth is estimated at 1.8 % in 2023-24. Even though these are optimistic estimates, economists are still cautioned because the estimated consumption rate is weak at 4.4% and this would be the lowest since the past two decades.

It further clarified that the private final consumption expenditure in the GDP for 2023-24 is estimated at 56.9% and this the lowest in the last three years.  Last year this was 58.5%. Apart from that the investment growth is estimated to be around 30% in 2023-24.

Important GDP forecasts:

• United Nations projected India’s GDP growth rate at 6.2 % in the year of 2024
• RBI projected India’s GDP growth at 7% for 2024
• According to S&P, India’s GDP growth for the year of 2024 is estimated at 6.4%
• Research firm Nomura estimated India’s GDP growth rate at 6.7% in 2024

Conclusion:

Further NSO stated that these are early projections of the GDP growth forecast for the 2023-24 and many parameters are there to influence the GDP growth of the country such as actual tax collections, expenditure incurred on subsidies etc.

Important Questions:

1. What are the estimates about the GDP growth in 2023-24 by the NSO advance estimates of national income?
2. According to you, how consumption growth influences the private investments in the GDP of a country?

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